It is easy for anyone to come at this crazy juncture and say I told you so. Many would say, in hindsight may be you would have done things differently or even drastically differently. And it’s too easy with hindsight. That’s the rhetoric one gets with hindsight. But what about foresight? Why is the latter a taboo or why is it sometimes viewed with a breezy air of craziness? Yet we know (and if we didn’t, at least now hopefully we know) with foresight, it is not about predicting the future 100%, in any case, I think it’s impossible to get to 100% accuracy, even that one is a hard job for almighty God. But at least with foresight, we can minimise surprises and more importantly unpleasant surprises. So where am I getting to?
Since last year, I have been interviewed and have been writing in other media papers quite on a regular basis. Every time I have been (I believe) consistent in my messaging. I pulled out my archives to have a read of what I said and used to write. I kept on reluctantly, every time I was given an opportunity to say “Mauritius please prepare yourself for the Iceberg and we better change course ASAP, or else it might be too late”. And more importantly I used to raise my concerns that we need both the public and private sector to pull together and prepare for a recession in this new decade. As I firmly believed back then, that Mauritius is far more vulnerable in 2020 if a global recession hits our shores. But, I was told I was an alarmist, that I had a pessimistic outlook and sometimes even felt like “un oiseau de mauvais augure”.
Not later than 2 months ago, when Covid-19 hit our Mauritian shores, after analysing the potential consequences, I viewed that Mauritius would not only face its first recession after 38 years but we would witness a deep double digit contraction. A number of our economic pillars would take years to recover and we might be facing a financial systemic risk within our banking sector and that we could get into an uncontrollable domino effect leading to a scenario of the falling of the pack of cards. This sounds Armageddon. And I am afraid that this might only be the beginning and we are very far from the bottom and from recovery.
Since the beginning of this crisis, it is clear to me that one of our main weaknesses (and we have loads of weaknesses) remains our human capital. Not that we don’t have talents and experienced people in Mauritius and out of Mauritius. This is where “le bât blesse”. There are plenty of Mauritians who would have been so more effective in navigating Mauritius out of this crisis which unfortunately will last for a much longer time. But what do you keep seeing though? The same people who have been leading a number of companies, institutions, and political ivory towers are at the helm of various task forces that have been set up here and there to get us out of this worst storm ever. And they adamantly believe they are the only great ones who can lead these task forces and that they are doing a favour to the nation. This is I believe stem from two things. The first one is insularity (which I have previously spoken about before where I firmly believe our insularity is a real killer), and the second one is the sheer arrogance.
So the big task for us as a Nation is how we deal with these two issues? And how do we pave the way for these brilliant Mauritians who are eager to be in the driving seats? And not for the fame, but for well-meaning for the good of Mauritius. In the last couple of weeks I have received tons of messages from amazingly experienced Mauritians worldwide who have super impressive CVs and yet cannot foresee to bring their experience to Mauritius, at a time where Mauritius needs more than the same old same. Last year, we saw how a West African country like Ghana undertook the promotion “Year of Return, Ghana 2019”. We have seen elsewhere in Rwanda and Ethiopia how they started to embrace talents that have made an impact in terms of how these countries have been growing lately. Albeit from a GDP per capita, they are way behind Mauritius and yet they seemed to be doing the right things.
So for Mauritius it is high time we do what needs to be done. We have two options, with the first option being further brain drain leading to a Zimbabwe scenario (oh yeah don’t think that can’t happen) post-Covid or a second option being Singapore that fully recognises talents. For me the choice is obvious, but what about for you
The right choices are so blatantly obvious. Mauritius has a different system based on an obsolete idea of equality, one where the obvious can never work. Always interesting to read your input though. Quite refreshing instead of the same experts we’ve been hearing for the last 20 or more years. Although wisdom is important, it now makes for very painful listening.